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HOME GATEWAY REPORT: Worldwide Multi-Carrier
Digital Settop & Services Analysis & Forecast
2003-2006
Published by: MRG, Inc.
April 2003
No. of Pages: 150
Price: US $1,995.00
TABLE OF CONTENTS
Executive Introduction
Ch. 1: Current Markets – Quick Overview
Section A: Satellite
Satellite Continues to Grow But Slower; Small Looks
Promising
Section B: Cable
U.S. & European Cable Gain Digital Subs and
Lose Analog Subs for Small Net Gain
Example: How U.S. Cable Has to Save Core Video Business.
U.S. & European Cable Continue Down Path of
Triple-Play
Video On-Demand – U.S./Canada Cable
Video On-Demand – Asia Cable
China
India & Korea
Japan & Australia
Section C: DTT (Digital Terrestrial)
DTT (Digital Terrestrial) – U.S./Canada
DTT Still on Slow-growth Until Digital Must Carry
(DMC) Issues Resolved
DTT – Europe
German DTT Experiment
DTT – Asia
Telco Video is Nascent and Sprouting Worldwide
Ch. 2: Market Drivers by carrier
Cable vs. Satellite – Triple-Play #1
Triple-Play #2
On-Demand Future for Cable
Individualized Channels or Pay Per Channel
Individualized Choice in Programming
North American Cable After 2005
Drivers of Cable vs. Large Telcos (RBOCs)
Drivers of Cable Telephony: VOIP – Triple-Play
#3/3
Drivers of Satellite Video
DTT: Digital Terrestrial Drivers – U.S.
Example of an Overlooked Population
DTT: Digital Terrestrial Drivers – Europe
DTT: Digital Terrestrial Drivers – Asia
Conclusion: Hybrid STBs & Sticky Services
Ch. 3: Market Size by Carrier
Introduction
Background
Hardware Trends
Summary of STB Market Drivers
North America (U.S./Canada)
Review of “Powell Mandate”
Review of CEA/CEMA Plug N Play
Why HD is a Wild Card
Europe: Digital Cable, DTH, DTT Households – 2003-2005
Asia
Digital Cable Background
China
DTH/Digital Cable - India & Korea
DTH/Digital Cable - Japan & Australia
DTT and DTH - China
DTH - China: When The Time is Right
DTT - China: On Hold
STB Suppliers to Japan, Korea, Australia (DTH, Digital
Cable, DTT)
Partnerships and Pricing in Asia
Latin America
South Africa
Worldwide Overview
PVR and VOD Household & RPU
Ch. 4: Future trends and Opportunities
Section A: Cable
Just in Time Concept Comes to Multi-Channel Cable
(2005-2015)
Opportunities for Advanced Cable Systems and DSL/Telco/IP
Cable: VOD and Triple-Play Service Add-ons in North
America and Europe.
China Cable: Fast Growth in Key Provinces Tied to
2008 Olympics.
Opportunity for Increased Role of DRM
Section B: Satellite/DTH
Opportunities in Satellite Storage: Stream or Burst
HD – DVD A Key to HD Transmission (DTH, Cable,
DTT)
Opportunities for Growth in Small DTH Systems
Large Satellite/DTH Systems – 2005-2010
Why Long-Form Video Will Avoid “Napsterization.”
Section C: Digital Terrestrial (DTT)
Opportunities for Digital Terrestrial – First
the West, then Asia
Conclusion
On-Demand or Enhanced TV Here to Stay
Chicken and Egg Solution
Appendix I: Company Profiles
1.0 Hardware (Key Components)
1.1 Broadcom Corporation
1.2 C-Cube Microsystems, Inc. (LSI Logic)
1.3 CacheVision, Inc.
1.4 Intel Architecture Group/Home Products Group
1.5 Motorola Consumer Broadcast Operations (Semiconductor
Products Sector)
1.6 National Semiconductor Corporation
1.7 TriMedia Technologies
1.8 SandCraft, Inc.
1.9 SCM Microsystems, Inc.
2.0 Hardware (STB Systems) – Multi-channel Video
Systems
2.1 Hughes Network Systems
2.2 Motorola, Inc./Broadband Communications Sector
(BCS)
2.3 Pace Micro Technology PLC
2.4 Panasonic Technologies, Inc.
2.5 Pioneer Corporation
2.6 Royal Philips Electronics NV
2.7 Scientific Atlanta, Inc.
2.8 Sony Corporation
2.9 Thomson Multimedia S.A.
2.10 Advanced Digital Broadcast, Limited
2.11 Digeo
3.0 Hardware (STB Systems) – PVR Systems (Standalone)
3.1 ReplayTV, Inc.
3.2 TiVo, Inc.
4.0 Operating Systems/Middleware
4.1 Liberate Technologies, Inc.
4.2 Metabyte Networks, Inc.
4.3 Microsoft TV
4.4 NDS Group PLC
4.5 OpenTV, Inc.
4.6 PowerTV, Inc.
4.7 Wind River Systems, Inc.
5.0 Digital Video Content Developers – ITV/ETV/EPG
Developers
5.1 Gemstar-TV Guide International, Inc.
5.2 National Broadcasting Company, Inc.
5.3 The Weather Channel, Inc.
5.4 Wink Communications, Inc.
6.0 Digital Video Content Developers – VOD Suppliers
6.1 Concurrent Computer Corporation
6.2 DIVA Systems Corporation
6.3 nCube Corporation
6.4 SeaChange Corporation
Appendix II: DTT Global Television Signal Transmission
Standards - Background
Appendix III: ROI Analysis
Scenario #1 – Digital STB Upgrade or Replacement
ROI for DTH STB and Receiver — Cost of New
Subscriber
ROI for Basic STB (Digital Cable) Upgrade for Current
Sub
Scenario #2 ROI Analysis of VOD Using PVRs During Off-Hours
Cable
Revenue Potential Excellent Based on Investment
ROI: 64 Channels – 10 Viewers/Movie
ROI for TS/VOD for DTH
ROI Discussion: USE of TS/VOD on DTH Network
Revenue Potential for 4 to 64 Channels Usage
Appendix IV: North American VOD Trials and Deployments
Appendix V: Interest in Digital Features – Total
Urban Cable and Satellite Subscribers
Charts
Chart 1.1: DigiCable + VOD Subs - North America –
2002-2005
Chart 2.1: Bandwidth Capacity Growth vs. Storage Capacity
Growth
Chart 3.1: Digital Cable, DTH, and DTT Households –
North America – 2002-2005
Chart 3.2: DigiCable, DTH, and DTT Subscriptions –
Canada – 2002-2005
Chart 3.3: DigiCable, DTH, and DTT Subscriptions –
U.S. – 2002-2005
Chart 3.4: New STB Units By Carrier – North America
- 2002-2005
Chart 3.5: Multi-carrier STB Sales – North America
- 2002-2005
Chart 3.6: Digital Households By Carrier – North
America - 2002-2005
Chart 3.7: Grand Total Digital Households – Europe
– 2002-2005
Chart 3.8: Grand Total Installed Base Digital STBs –
Europe – 2002-2005
Chart 3.9: New STB Units By Carrier - Europe –
2002-2005
Chart 3.10: Multi-carrier STB Sales - Europe –
2002-2005
Chart 3.11: Digital Households By Carrier – Europe
- 2002-2005
Chart 3.12: New STB Units By Carrier – Asia –
2002-2005
Chart 3.13: Multi-carrier STB Sales - Asia – 2002-2005
Chart 3.14: Digital Households By Carrier – Asia
- 2002-2005
Chart 3.15: New DTH STB Units – Latin America -
2002-2005
Chart 3.16: DTH STB Sales – Latin America - 2002-2005
Chart 3.17: DTH STB Subs – Latin America - 2002-2005
Chart 3.18: New STB Units – South Africa - 2002-2005
Chart 3.19: STB Sales – South Africa - 2002-2005
Chart 3.20: DTH STB Subs – South Africa - 2002-2005
Chart 3.21: Grand Total STB Sales – 2002-2005
Chart III.1: DTH Break-Even Point (with Installation)
Chart III.2: Digital Cable Break-Even Point (with Installation)
Chart III.3: Digital Cable – VOD – Ten Viewers/Movie
(64 Channels)
Chart III.4: Digital Cable VOD Streams – 1 Viewer/Movie
(64 Channels)
Chart III.5: DTH TS/VOD – 1 View/Movie (64 Channel)
Chart III.6: DTH TS/VOD – 10 Viewers/Movie (64
Channels)
Illustrations
Illustration 1.1: HD Drivers North America
Illustration 1.2: Toothpick Glasses (TPG): Now Required
for PVR Owners
Illustration 2.1: Triple-Play Line-Up #1
Illustration 2.2: VOD Communication Topography –
Old to New
Illustration 2.3: Hybrid DTH + DTT STB – 2008
Illustration 2.4: Hybrid Digital Cable + DTT, Plug N
Play – 2004-2006
Illustration 3.1: Dual Design Requirement
Illustration 3.2: Integrated Chip Design With Front
End Functions
Illustration 3.3: Personalization Pyramid
Illustration 3.4: DTT STB Drivers
Illustration 3.5: HD Drivers – North America –
2003-2008
Illustration 4.1: Multi-channel vs. IP Video
Illustration 4.2: Interim IP Video – Cable = Gig
E to Hub
Illustration 4.3: VOD Communication Topography –
Old to New
Illustration 4.4: Triple-Play #2 – U.S. Cable,
Then Europe & Asia
Illustration 4.5: “Plug N Play” Integrated
STB – U.S. Cable + DTT
Illustration 4.6: IP Video Leap Frogs M-Channel in Cable
Illustration 4.7: Chicken and Egg
Tables
Table 1.1: Broadband Subscription vs. Digital Subscription
– 2001-2002
Table 1.2: Top Things Comcast Can/Should Do
Table 2.1: Personalization Functions – Print vs.
Digital Video
Table 2.2: Multi-channel Broadcast Video vs. IP Video
Table 2.3: Off-Air TV Households With No Satellite or
Cable – U.S., Europe, & Asia
Table 3.1: Levels of Enhanced TV (ETV)
Table 3.2: Overview of Digital Television Households
- North America – 2002-2005
Table 3.3: U.S. TV Integrated Tennis Match (Cable/DTT)
Table 3.4: DigiCable, DTH and DTT Households - Canada/U.S.
- 2002-2005
Table 3.5: STB Units/Revenue for DTH, DigiCable, and
DTT - North America - 2002-2005
Table 3.6: North America TV sales/year by size-including
NTSC & ATSC Tuners – 2003-2007
Table 3.7: Overview of Digital Multi-channel Subscribers
– Europe – 2002-2005
Table 3.8: Digital Cable Subs & STB Unit/Revenue
Sales – Europe - 2002-2005
Table 3.9: Digital Cable/ DTH - Asia (China, Japan,
Korea, Australia) – 2002-2005
Table 3.10: Digital Cable and DTH - India & Korea
– 2002-2005
Table 3.11: DTH Households – Latin America - 2002-2005
Table 3.12: DTH Households - South Africa – 2002-2005
Table 3.13: Total Worldwide STB Unit/Revenue Forecast
– 2002-2005
Table 4.1: Bit Rate/Home Migration – U.S. Cable
(with QAM + MPEG4) 6
Table 4.2: Storage/Memory Capacity – DTH (Satellite)
STB/PVR
Table 4.3: Integrated PVRs vs. Centralized Storage –
North America (by percent of caching)
Table II.1: DTH Worldwide Digital and Analog Television
Transmission and Modulation Standards
Table III.1: Basic ROI Schedule – Digital DTH STB
(U.S.)
Table III.2: Basic ROI Schedule – Digital Cable
STB (U.S.)
Table III.3: ROI Based on Channel TS/VOD Allocation
for Cable (Annual)
Table III.4: ROI Based on Channel Allocation for DTH
Report
Description
Press Release (April 8,
2003)
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