1 Executive Summary
This section forecast is an update to MRG’s IPTV Global Forecast – 2004 to 2008, dated August 2004.
It incorporates the most recent information on IPTV deployments
including:
• Plans by SBC and BellSouth to deploy large IPTV
networks in the U.S.
• Plans by Verizon to use IPTV technology for Video
On Demand services to supplement its RF based broadband
video service over its Fiber to the Premise (FTTP) access
network.
• The introduction of Video On Demand IPTV services
by China Telecom.
• The broad deployment of IPTV services in many countries
in Europe.
• The continued growth of subscribers by the major
established IPTV service providers. such as, Free in France,
PCCW in Hong Kong, and FastWeb in Italy.
We are forecasting that the number of DSL subscribers will
grow from 109 million on 2004 to 204 million in 2008, a
compound annual growth rate of 17 percent. These DSL subscribers
are the base for the IPTV subscribers shown in Figure 1-1.
Figure 1-1: Global IPTV Subscriber Forecast
Figure 1-1 shows that the number of global IPTV subscribers
will grow from 1.9 million in 2004 to 25.3 million in 2008,
a compound annual growth rate of 79 percent.
Europe is leading the market, but the forecast for North
America has increased and now slightly leads Asia. The increase
in North America is due to the strong commitments to IPTV made by SBC, BellSouth, and Verizon in the fall of 2004.
Figure 1-2 shows that the global IPTV service revenue forecast
is $635 million in 2004 growing to $7.2 billion in 2008,
a compound annual growth rate of 102 percent. All three
of the regions – Europe, North America, and Asia are
generating a significant amount of this revenue.
Figure 1-2: Global IPTV Service Revenue Forecast
Table of Contents
1 Executive Summary
2 Global Outlook for IP TV
2.1 Europe has Moved to the Front
2.1.1 Competition Heating up in France
2.1.2 FastWeb Leads the Way
2.1.3 Benelux Countries
2.1.4 IP TV Starting in the UK
2.1.5 Other Western European Countries
2.1.6 IP TV Progressing in Eastern Europe
2.2 Asia Not Quite Living up to Its Potential
2.2.1 Moving Forward in Hong Kong
2.2.2 Taiwan Getting Back Up To Speed
2.2.3 Japan Starting Up
2.2.4 Korea Will Focus on Video On Demand
2.2.5 China Has Big Plans
2.2.6 Activities in Other Asian Countries
2.3 The Major U.S. Incumbents Pushing IP TV
2.3.1 Large U.S. Incumbents are Starting IP TV Activities
2.3.2 Canadian Telcos Adopting IP TV
2.3.3 Small U.S. Independent Telcos Continuing their Advance
2.4 IP TV Emerging in the Rest of the World
3 Global IP TV Market Forecast
3.1 Methodology
3.1.1 DSL Forecast
3.1.2 IP TV Subscribers and Revenue
3.1.3 Access System Revenue
3.1.4 Video Headend System Revenue
3.1.5 Video On Demand Server Revenue
3.1.6 Set-top Box Revenue
3.1.7 Middleware Software Revenue
3.1.8 Content Protection/Digital Rights Management Software
Revenue
3.1.9 System Integration and Professional Services Revenue
3.2 Global Forecast Shows Strong Growth
3.2.1 Global DSL Forecast Increasing
3.2.2 IP TV Subscriber Forecast Remains Firm
3.2.3 Global System Revenue Forecast
3.2.4 Global Access System Revenue Forecast
3.2.5 Global Set-top Box Revenue Forecast
3.2.6 Global IP TV Headend Revenue Forecast
3.2.7 Global IP Video On Demand Revenue Forecast
3.2.8 Global IP TV Middleware Revenue Forecast
3.2.9 Global IP TV Content Protection Revenue Forecast
3.2.10 Global IP TV System Integration Revenue Forecast
3.3 IP TV Market Forecast for Europe
3.3.1 DSL Subscriber Forecast for Europe
3.3.2 IP TV Subscriber Forecast for Europe
3.3.3 IP TV System Revenue for Europe
3.4 IP TV Market Forecast for North America
3.4.1 DSL Subscribers for North America
3.4.2 IP TV Subscriber Forecast for North America
3.4.3 IP TV System Revenue for North America
3.5 IP TV Market Forecast for Asia
3.5.1 DSL Subscriber Forecast for Asia
3.5.2 IP TV Subscriber Forecast for Asia
3.5.3 IP TV System Revenue For Asia
3.6 IP TV Market Forecast for the Rest of the World
3.6.1 DSL Subscriber Forecast for the Rest of the World
3.6.2 IP TV Subscriber Forecast for the Rest of the World
3.6.3 IP TV System Revenue for the Rest of the World
4 Opportunities, Risks, and Recommendations
4.1 Opportunities
4.2 Risks
4.3 Recommendations
Table of Figures
Figure 1 1: Global IP TV Subscriber Forecast
Figure 1 2: Global IP TV Service Revenue Forecast
Figure 1 3: Global IP TV System Revenue Forecast
Figure 3 1 Global DSL Subscriber Forecast
Figure 3 2: Global IP TV Subscriber Forecast
Figure 3 3: Global IP TV Service Revenue Forecast
Figure 3 4: Global IP TV System Revenue Forecast
Figure 3 5: Global IP TV System Revenue Forecast
Figure 3 6: Global Forecast for IP TV Set-top Boxes
Figure 3 7: Global IP TV Video Headend Revenue
Figure 3 8: Global IP TV Video On Demand Server Revenue
Figure 3 9: Global IP TV Middleware Revenue Forecast
Figure 3 10: Global IP TV Content Protection Forecast
Figure 3 11: Global System Integration and Professional
Services Revenue
Figure 3 12: DSL Subscriber Forecast for Europe
Figure 3 13: IP TV Subscriber Forecast for Europe
Figure 3 14: IP TV Subscriber Revenue Forecast for Europe
Figure 3 15: IP TV System Revenue Forecast for Europe
Figure 3 16: DSL Subscribers Forecast for North America
Figure 3 17: IP TV Subscriber Forecast for North America
Figure 3 18: IP TV Subscriber Revenue Forecast for North
America
Figure 3 19: IP TV System Revenue for North America
Figure 3 20: Asian DSL Subscriber Market
Figure 3 21: Asian IP TV Subscriber Forecast
Figure 3 22: Asian IP TV Subscriber Revenue
Figure 3 23: IP TV System Revenue for Asia
Figure 3 24: DSL Subscriber Forecast for the Rest of the
World
Figure 3 25: IP TV Subscriber Forecast for the Rest of the
World
Figure 3 26: IP TV System Revenue for the Rest of the World
Table of Tables
Table 2 1: Global IP TV Service Providers
Table 3 1: IP TV Service Subscriber Monthly Pricing Assumptions
Table 3 2: IP TV Access System Per Port Pricing Assumptions
Table 3 3: IP TV Video System Per Encoder Pricing Assumptions
Table 3 4: Video On Demand Per Stream Pricing Assumptions
Table 3 5: Set-top Box Pricing Assumptions
Table 3 6: Set-top Box Pricing Assumptions
Table 3 7: Content Protection/Digital Rights Management
Price Per Subscriber
Table 3 8: System Integration/Professional Services Rates
Table 3 9: Leading Service Providers in Asia
Table 3 10: Service Provider IP TV System Spending: 2004-2008
Table 3 11: Leading Service Providers in Asia
Table 3 12: Service Provider IP TV System Spending: 2004-2008
Table 3 13: Leading Service Providers in Asia
Table 3 14: Service Provider IP TV System Spending: 2004-2008
Table 3 15: Leading Service Providers in Asia
Table 3 16: Service Provider IP TV System Spending: 2004-2008
Order Form
Press
Release
