Reports, MRG Multimedia Research Group, Inc.

Mobile TV:

Global Standards Review & Forecast

for Infrastructure & Handsets— 2007-2011

Published by MRG, Inc.
April 2007, 175 pages

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Introduction

The big issues about mobile TV are whether people really want to watch television programming on a screen that small, and if so, how long will it take to happen and what exactly will the experience be like?

During the research for this report, the answers to these questions have become obvious: doubt about the rise of mobile TV as a major new technology area will be swept aside by the large number of possibilities in front of the cellular and broadcasting communities.

Figure: Mobile TV Road Maps
Source: Copyright © 2007 MRG, Inc.

In every single trial, of video on a handset, between 60% and 85% of the audience said, “When can I buy one?” or words to that effect. Once a consumer sees what is possible, their doubt appears to evaporate. It is only people that have seen impoverished “unicast” video services, and who also compete for spectrum with mobile voice, who continue to believe that video on a device that small is a mistake.

Unicast video will have its place, we are sure. But the early services, whether they were the Live! service from Vodafone, the huge number of TV channels offered by Orange in Europe, the VCast services of Verizon or AT&T Video and Sprint PCS services offered in the US, were all extremely limited.

In surveys of US customers that had experienced these services, around 13% to 15% of them thought that mobile TV had a future.

Table of Contents

1	Introduction

2	Conclusions And Summary
2.1	Service Revenue By 2011
2.2	Infrastructure Spending By 2011

3	Technology Overview
3.1	Mobile TV Technologies
3.1.1	OFDM, Time Interleaving, Frequency Interleaving And FEC
3.1.2	Time Slicing
3.2	The Quality Imperative In Mobile TV
3.3	Different Video Densities And Resolutions
3.3.1	Underlying Codec Constraints
3.3.2	Fractals, Wavelets And Differential Codecs
3.3.3	Statistical Multiplexing
3.4	Datacasting Technology In Details
3.5	DAB IP, T-DMB And S-DMB
3.6	High Definition Radio
3.6.1	A Strictly US Approach
3.6.2	DAB Version 2.0
3.7	The Korean T-DMB Experiment
3.8	S-DMB Versus T-DMB
3.8.1	The Korean Political Nightmare
3.8.2	Separating Technology From Business Models
3.9	The New Chinese Mobile TV System
3.9.1	DMB-T/H – A Technology That Cannot Be Exported
3.9.2	Alcatel And Samsung In China
3.10	T-DMB In The Rest Of The World
3.11	DVB-H And DVB-SH
3.12	How The World Expects DVB-H To Be Deployed
3.12.1	The US Has No Vested Interest To Use DVB-H
3.13	Power Requirements For Mobile TV
3.14	DVB-H Trials And Live Services
3.14.1	DVB-H Will Take 50% Of The Market, Despite Losing Out In The US
3.14.2	MediaFLO And Whatever China Adopts Will Be Neck And Neck
3.15	DVB-H Support – Organizations And Vendors
3.15.1	Mobile DTV Alliance
3.15.2	DVB-H Asia Pacific Alliance
3.16	FLO, MediaFLO And The FLO Forum
3.17	Sprint And WiMAX TV
3.17.1	Qualcomm’s Audacity
3.17.2	DVB-H Versus MediaFLO
3.17.3	News Corp’s BSkyB And MediaFLO
3.18	The Penalty Of Using L-Band
3.18.1	The DVB-H MediaFLO Rebuttal
3.18.2	Dollar For Dollar The Two Technologies Are About The Same
3.19	DVB-SH Or S-Band
3.19.1	Cost Advantages Of Using A Satellite
3.19.2	DVB-H And DVB-SH Co-Existence
3.19.3	Alcatel-Lucent And Samsung In Alliance In Europe And China?
3.20	Multicasting Within A Cellular Signal
3.20.1	TDtv Uses The Unpaired TDD Channel In Most 3G Licenses
3.20.2	TDtv Trial In Bristol
3.20.3	Vodafone And Orange Are Deeply Rooted To DVB-H As Well
3.21	TV Over WiMAX
3.21.1	WiMAX Is Now Seen As A Tool For Existing Cable, Not A Rival
3.21.2	The Multicasting Problem With WiMAX
3.21.3	WiMAX Multicast Standard Incomplete
3.21.4	Other WiMAX Problems
3.22	TV Over Wi-Fi
3.23	Placeshifting
3.24	On Board Storage
3.25	Advanced Screen Technologies

4	Global Mobile TV Services And Forecasts — 2007-2011
4.1	Which Countries Will Install Mobile TV
4.2	The Issue Of Spectrum
4.3	Mobile TV Sign Up Rates
4.4	Some Sample Countries
4.4.1	France
4.4.2	Indonesia
4.4.3	UK
4.4.4	China
4.4.5	Germany
4.4.6	Rest Of The World
4.5	Western Europe
4.6	Eastern And Central Europe
4.7	USA And Canada
4.8	China And Asia Pacific
4.8.1	China
4.8.2	Japan
4.8.3	Korea
4.8.4	Israel, Middle East And Africa
4.9	South And Central America
4.10	Infrastructure Build-Out
4.11	Cost Calculation Methodology
4.12	Multicasting Cost Variables
4.12.1	General Handset Costs
4.12.2	Apple iPod & Other Handsets
4.12.3	Comparing Satellite Broadcasting Costs
4.12.4	Satellite DMB Cost Model – France (Alcatel Model)
4.12.5	DVB-H Cost Analysis - France
4.12.6	Low Power Issues
4.12.7	Little Difference Between Technology Costs

5	Equipment Forecasts By Region
5.1	Calculation Approach
5.2	Western Europe
5.3	Eastern And Central Europe
5.3.1	Ukraine
5.3.2	Russia & High-Expenditure Countries
5.4	USA And Canada
5.5	China And Asia Pacific
5.6	Israel, Middle East And Africa
5.7	South And Central America

6	Service Revenue Projections
6.1	Chip Component Revenue Projections
6.2	Non-Handset Sales

7	Mobile TV Trials

8	Mobile TV Business Models
8.1	Advertising Based TV Is Getting Saturated
8.2	Requirements For A Successful Mobile TV Business
8.2.1	If It Costs Less To Build A Network, Service Revenues Can Be Lower
8.2.2	Saturated Mobile Economies Need To Charge More And Sell Ads
8.2.3	US Market
8.3	Advertising As A Revenue Stream
8.3.1	China
8.4	Short Form Mobile Content
8.5	Addressable Advertising
8.6	Local Advertising
8.7	Subscriptions First, Then Advertising
8.8	Blended Mobile Video
8.9	The Mobile Video Portal As The Next Major Software Platform
8.10	Other Revenues
8.11	Future Video

9	Mobile TV Equipment Vendors

10	Index of Companies

Table of Figures

Figure 3-1:	How IP Video Needs to Be Sent
Figure 3-2:	Mobile TV Road Maps
Figure 3-3:	DAB Transport Protocol Stack
Figure 3-4:	Dacos T-DMB Mobile TV Portable Player
Figure 3-5:	Possible Network Topology Solutions For DVB-H
Figure 3-6:	DVB-H And MediaFLO Are More Or Less Identical
Figure 3-7:	One Inch Disk Drive Trends
Figure 4-1:	Countries Included With Under 50% Mobile Penetration
Figure 4-2:	Formula For Calculating Penetration Of Mobile TV
Figure 4-3:	Accumulated Global Mobile TV Enabled Handsets
Figure 4-4:	Global Mobile TV Enabled Handset Deployments Per Year
Figure 4-5:	Mobile TV Handset Breakdown By Global Region 2011
Figure 4-6:	Mobile TV Handsets Shipments By 2011 By Region
Figure 4-7:	Mobile TV Handsets In Western Europe in 2011
Figure 4-8:	Accumulated Mobile TV Handsets In Western Europe
Figure 4-9:	Mobile TV Handsets In Eastern And Central Europe 2011
Figure 4-10:	Accumulated Mobile TV Handsets In Eastern And Central Europe
Figure 4-11:	Mobile TV Handsets In USA And Canada In 2011
Figure 4-12:	Accumulated Mobile TV Handsets In USA And Canada
Figure 4-13:	Mobile TV Handsets In China And Asia Pacific In 2011
Figure 4-14:	Accumulated Mobile TV Handsets In China And Asia Pacific
Figure 4-15:	Mobile TV Handsets In Israel, Middle East And Africa In 2011
Figure 4-16:	Accumulated Mobile TV Handsets In Israel, Middle East And Africa
Figure 4-17:	Mobile TV Handsets South And Central America In 2011
Figure 4-18:	Accumulated Mobile TV Handsets In South And Central America
Figure 5-1:	Global Mobile TV Transmission Equipment In $ Million
Figure 5-2:	Accumulated Mobile TV Transmission Equipment Spending
Figure 5-3:	Western Europe Mobile TV Transmission Equipment Spending To 2011
Figure 5-4:	Western Europe Mobile TV Transmission Equipment Annual Spending
Figure 5-5:	Eastern And Central Europe Mobile TV Transmission Equipment Spending To 2011
Figure 5-6:	Eastern And Central Europe Mobile TV Transmission Equipment Annual Spending
Figure 5-7:	Canada And USA Mobile Spending On TV Transmission Equipment To 2011
Figure 5-8:	Canada And USA Mobile TV Transmission Equipment Annual Spending
Figure 5-9:	Asia Pacific Spending On Mobile TV Transmission Equipment To 2011
Figure 5-10:	Israel, Middle East And Africa Mobile TV Transmission Equipment Spending To 2011
Figure 5-11:	Israel, Middle East And Africa Mobile TV Transmission Equipment Annual Spending
Figure 5-12:	South & Central America Mobile TV Transmission Equipment Spending To 2011
Figure 5-13:	South & Central America Mobile TV Transmission Equipment Annual Spending
Figure 6-1:	Datacasting Mobile TV Device Non-Handsets
Figure 6-2:	Cumulative Non-Handset Players
Figure 7-1:	Global Mobile TV Trials And Live Networks

Table of Tables

Table 3-1:	The Different Mobile Broadcast Technologies
Table 3-2:	What Is The Video That We Want To Send?
Table 3-3:	The Likely Reach Of DVB-H Through 2009
Table 3-4:	Likely Reach Of MediaFLO Through 2009 In The Top 30 US Markets
Table 4-1:	Mobile TV Handsets In Western Europe In 2011
Table 4-2:	Mobile TV Handsets In Eastern And Central Europe In 2011
Table 4-3:	Mobile TV Handsets In USA And Candada In 2011
Table 4-4:	Mobile TV Handsets In China And Asia Pacific In 2011
Table 4-5:	Mobile TV Handsets In Israel, Middle East And Africa In 2011
Table 4-6:	Mobile TV Handsets In South And Central America In 2011
Table 6-1:	Handset Breakdown By Global Region 2011
Table 6-2:	Unit Shipments - Mobile TV Handsets 2006-2011
Table 6-3:	Revenue - Chip Shipments For Mobile TV 2006-2011

Mobile TV: Global Standards Review & Forecast for Infrastructure & Handsets — 2007-2011 is 175 pages and is available in a printed English language edition for $3,995.00 US, a PDF single-departmental license for $5,200.00 US. For more information or to order the report, contact Rob Smith at 408-524-9767 or rsmith@mrgco.com.

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