Executive Summary
This is a detailed forecast for the IP TV Video Headend market that is based on MRG’s IP TV Forecast & IP TV Global Forecast Update – March 2005. It incorporates the most recent information on IP TV deployments including:
- Plans by SBC and BellSouth to deploy large IP TV networks in the U.S.
- Plans by Verizon to use IP TV technology for Video On Demand services to supplement its RF based broadband video service over its Fiber to the Premise (FTTP) access network.
- The introduction of Video On Demand IP TV services by China Telecom.
- The broad deployment of IP TV services in many countries in Europe.
- The continued growth of subscribers by the major established IP TV service providers, such as Free in France, PCCW in Hong Kong, and FastWeb in Italy.
We are forecasting that the number of DSL subscribers will grow from 109 million on 2004 to 204 million in 2008, a compound annual growth rate of 17 percent. These DSL subscribers are the base for the forecast for IP TV subscribers.
Figure 1-1 shows that the number of global IP TV subscribers supported by services that include IP TV Video headends will grow from 1.5 million in 2004, to 19.7 million in 2008, a compound annual growth rate of 91 percent.
Europe is leading the market, but the forecast for North America has increased and now slightly leads Asia. The increase in North America is due to the strong commitments to IP TV made by SBC, BellSouth, and Verizon in the fall of 2004.
Figure 1-1: Global IP TV Subscriber Forecast for Video Headends
Source: MRG, Inc.
Figure 1-2 shows that the global IP TV service revenue forecast for IP TV subscribers (supported by IP TV Video Headends) is $423 million in 2004, growing to $6.4 billion in 2008--a compound annual growth rate of 97 percent. All three of the major regions – Europe, North America, and Asia are generating a significant amount of this revenue.
Figure 1-2: Global IP TV Service Revenue Forecast
Source: MRG, Inc.
Figure 1-3 shows that the forecast for global IP TV service revenue will grow from $37 million in 2004 too $127 million in 2008, a compound annual growth rate of 36 percent. MPEG-4 encoders.
Figure 1-3: Global IP TV Video Headend Revenue Forecast
Source: MRG, Inc.
The forecast shows that the market for IP TV services and equipment will be a strong one with strong opportunities in Europe, Asia, and North America. We expect growth to continue, since there are a number of deployments are poised to start. We continue to believe that 2005 will be “The Year of IP TV”.
Table of Contents
1 Executive Summary
2 Global Outlook for IP TV Video Headends
2.1 Europe has Moved to the Front
2.1.1 Competition Heating up in France
2.1.2 FastWeb Leads the Way
2.1.3 Benelux Countries
2.1.4 IP TV Starting in the UK
2.1.5 Other Western European Countries
2.1.6 IP TV Progressing in Eastern Europe
2.2 The Major U.S. Incumbents Pushing IP TV
2.2.1 Large U.S. Incumbents are Starting IP TV Activities
2.2.2 Canadian Telcos Adopting IP TV
2.2.3 Small U.S. Independent Telcos Continuing their Advance
2.3 Asia Not Meeting Expectation
2.3.1 Moving Forward in Hong Kong
2.3.2 Taiwan Getting Back Up To Speed
2.3.3 Japan Having a Slow Start
2.3.4 Korea Will Focus on Video On Demand
2.3.5 China Has Big Plans
2.3.6 Activities in Other Asian Countries
2.4 IP TV Emerging in the Rest of the World
3 Global IP TV Market Forecast
3.1 Methodology
3.1.1 DSL Forecast
3.1.2 IP TV Video Headend Subscribers and Revenue
3.1.3 Video Headend System Forecast
3.1.4 MPEG-2 Encoder Forecast
3.1.5 Standard Definition MPEG-4 Encoder Forecast
3.1.6 High Definition MPEG-4 Encoder Forecast
3.2 Global Forecast Shows Strong Growth
3.2.1 Global DSL Forecast
3.2.2 IP TV Subscriber Forecast Shows Strong Growth
3.2.3 Global IP TV Video Headend Revenue Forecast
3.2.4 Global IP TV Encoder MPEG-2 Forecast
3.2.5 Global Standard Definition MPEG4 Encoder Forecast
3.2.6 Global IP TV High Definition MPEG-4 Encoder Forecast
3.3 IP TV Market Forecast for Europe
3.3.1 DSL Forecast in Europe
3.3.2 IP TV Video Headend Subscriber Forecast for Europe
3.3.3 IP TV Video Headend Revenue Forecast for Europe
3.3.4 IP TV Encoder MPEG-2 Forecast for Europe
3.3.5 Standard Definition MPEG4 Encoder Forecast for Europe
3.3.6 IP TV High Definition MPEG-4 Encoder Forecast for Europe
3.4 IP TV Market Forecast for North America
3.4.1 DSL Subscribers for North America
3.4.2 IP TV Subscriber Forecast for North America
3.4.3 IP TV Video Headend Revenue Forecast for North America
3.4.4 IP TV Encoder MPEG-2 Forecast for North America
3.4.5 Standard Definition MPEG4 Encoder Forecast for North America
3.4.6 IP TV High Definition MPEG-4 Encoder Forecast for North America
3.5 IP TV Market Forecast for Asia
3.5.1 DSL Subscriber Forecast for Asia
3.5.2 IP TV Subscriber Forecast for Asia
3.5.3 IP TV Video Headend Revenue Forecast for Asia
3.5.4 IP TV Encoder MPEG-2 Forecast for Asia
3.5.5 Standard Definition MPEG4 Encoder Forecast for Asia
3.5.6 IP TV High Definition MPEG-4 Encoder Forecast for Asia
3.6 IP TV Market Forecast for the Rest of the World
3.6.1 DSL Subscriber Forecast for the Rest of the World
3.6.2 IP TV Subscriber Forecast for the Rest of the World
3.6.3 IP TV Video Headend Revenue Forecast for the Rest of the World
3.6.4 IP TV Encoder MPEG-2 Forecast for the Rest of the World
3.6.5 Standard Definition MPEG4 Encoder Forecast for the Rest of the World
3.6.6 IP TV High Definition MPEG-4 Encoder Forecast for the ROW
4 Opportunities, Risks, and Recommendations
4.1 Opportunities
4.2 Risks
4.3 Recommendations
Table of Figures
Figure 1-1: Global IP TV Subscriber Forecast
Figure 1-2: Global IP TV Service Revenue Forecast
Figure 1-3: Global IP TV Video Headend Revenue Forecast
Figure 3-1 Global DSL Subscriber Forecast
Figure 3-2: Global IP TV Subscriber Forecast
Figure 3-3: IP TV Video Headend Subscriber Service Revenue Forecast
Figure 3-4: Global IP TV Video Headend Revenue Forecast
Figure 3-5: Global IP TV Encoders by Technology
Figure 3-6: Global IP TV Encoder Revenue by Technology
Figure 3-7: Global IP TV MPEG-2 Encoder Unit Forecast
Figure 3-8: Global IP TV MPEG-2 Encoder Revenue Forecast
Figure 3-9: Global IP TV SD MPEG-4 Encoder Unit Forecast
Figure 3-10: Global Forecast for IP TV SD MPEG-4 Encoder Revenue
Figure 3-11: Global IP TV HD MPEG-4 Encoder Unit Forecast
Figure 3-12: Global Forecast for IP TV HD MPEG-4 Encoder Revenue
Figure 3-13 DSL Subscriber Forecast for Europe
Figure 3-14: IP TV Subscriber Forecast for Europe
Figure 3-15: IP TV Service Revenue Forecast for Europe
Figure 3-16: IP TV Video Headend Revenue Forecast for Europe
Figure 3-17: IP TV Encoders by Technology for Europe
Figure 3-18: IP TV Encoder Revenue by Technology for Europe
Figure 3-19: IP TV MPEG-2 Encoder Unit Forecast for Europe
Figure 3-20: IP TV MPEG-2 Encoder Revenue Forecast for Europe
Figure 3-21: IP TV SD MPEG-4 Encoder Unit Forecast for Europe
Figure 3-22: Forecast for IP TV SD MPEG-4 Encoder Revenue in Europe
Figure 3-23: IP TV HD MPEG-4 Encoder Unit Forecast for Europe
Figure 3-24: Forecast for IP TV HD MPEG-4 Encoder Revenue for Europe
Figure 3-25: DSL Subscribers Forecast for North America
Figure 3-26: IP TV Subscriber Forecast for North America
Figure 3-27: IP TV Service Revenue Forecast for North America
Figure 3-28: IP TV Video Headend Revenue Forecast for North America
Figure 3-29: IP TV Encoders by Technology in North America
Figure 3-30: IP TV Encoder Revenue by Technology in North America
Figure 3-31: IP TV MPEG-2 Encoder Unit Forecast for North America
Figure 3-32: IP TV MPEG-2 Encoder Revenue Forecast for North America
Figure 3-33: IP TV SD MPEG-4 Encoder Unit Forecast for North America
Figure 3-34: Forecast for IP TV SD MPEG-4 Encoder Revenue in North America
Figure 3-35: IP TV HD MPEG-4 Encoder Unit Forecast for North America
Figure 3-36: Forecast for IP TV HD MPEG-4 Encoder Revenue for North America
Figure 3-37: Asian DSL Subscriber Market
Figure 3-38: IP TV Subscriber Forecast for Asia
Figure 3-39: IP TV Service Revenue Forecast for Asia
Figure 3-40: IP TV Video Headend Revenue Forecast for Asia
Figure 3-41: IP TV Encoders by Technology for Asia
Figure 3-42: IP TV Encoder Revenue by Technology for Asia
Figure 3-43: IP TV MPEG-2 Encoder Unit Forecast for Asia
Figure 3-44: IP TV MPEG-2 Encoder Revenue Forecast for Asia
Figure 3-45: IP TV SD MPEG-4 Encoder Unit Forecast for Asia
Figure 3-46: Forecast for IP TV SD MPEG-4 Encoder Revenue for Asia
Figure 3-47: IP TV HD MPEG-4 Encoder Unit Forecast for Asia
Figure 3-48: Forecast for IP TV HD MPEG-4 Encoder Revenue for Asia
Figure 3-49: DSL Subscriber Forecast for the Rest of the World
Figure 3-50: IP TV Subscriber Forecast for the Rest of the World
Figure 3-51: IP TV Service Revenue Forecast for the Rest of the World
Figure 3-52: IP TV Video Headend Revenue Forecast for the Rest of the World
Figure 3-53: IP TV Encoders by Technology for the Rest of the World
Figure 3-54: IP TV Encoder Revenue by Technology for the Rest of the World
Figure 3-55: IP TV MPEG-2 Encoder Unit Forecast for the Rest of the World
Figure 3-56: IP TV MPEG-2 Encoder Revenue Forecast for the Rest of the World
Figure 3-57: IP TV SD MPEG-4 Encoder Unit Forecast for the Rest of the World
Figure 3-58: Forecast for IP TV SD MPEG-4 Encoder Revenue for the ROW
Figure 3-59: IP TV HD MPEG-4 Encoder Unit Forecast for the ROW
Figure 3-60: Forecast for IP TV HD MPEG-4 Encoder Revenue for the ROW
Table of Tables
Table 2-1: Global IP TV Service Providers
Table 3-1: IP TV Video Headend Service Subscriber Monthly Pricing Assumptions
Table 3-2: IP TV Video System Per Encoder Pricing Assumptions
Table 3-3: IP TV Video System Per Encoder Pricing Assumptions
Table 3-4: IP TV Video System Per Encoder Pricing Assumptions
Table 3-5: Leading Service Providers Globally
Table 3-6: Global Service Provider IP TV Video Headend Spending: 2004-2008
Table 3-7: Leading Service Providers for Europe
Table 3-8: European Service Provider IP TV Video Headend Spending: 2004-2008
Table 3-9: Leading Service Providers in North America
Table 3-10: North American Service Provider IP TV Video Headend Spending
Table 3-11: Leading Service Providers in Asia
Table 3-12: Asian Service Provider IP TV Video Headend Spending: 2004-2008
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IP TV Video Headend Global Forecast – 2004 to 2008 is 89 pages and available in the following editions:
Printed edition - $3,375.00 US
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