Executive Summary

Conventional bulk silicon based PV cells have been used since the 1960s and have undergone substantial developments, however they are the most costly to manufacture especially in light of the current worldwide silicon shortage. These cells types accounted for more than 83 percent of the market share in 2007. Thin-film PV cells have been evolving since the early 1970s, and organics PV cells since the 1990s and accounted for about 17 percent of the total PV market in 2007, making it one of the fast growing technologies in the whole of the alternative energy sector. These cells are made by directly depositing photoactive material onto a thin substrate, and are therefore much thinner and require less material than conventional PV cells and offer increasing efficiencies. There are several important thin-film PV cell types: amorphous silicon (a-Si); cadmium telluride (CdTe); and copper indium diselenide/copper indium gallium diselenide (CIS / CIGS), and also organic systems. In 2007, NREL demonstrated CIGS PV cells with 19.9 percent efficiency, which is still very far from that reported by University of Delaware researchers for crystalline silicon (42.8 percent), but nonetheless demonstrates the tremendous potential for thin-film PV and its great applicability in many applications.

Key drivers enabling the development and use of organic and thin-film PV cells include government programs, silicon costs and availability.

The current main thin-film PV technologies accounted for about 17 percent of the total PV market in 2007, and this is expected to increase to more than 32 percent (about 4 GW) by 2013. A number of activities being carried out by organizations in the PV sector are helping the development of this emerging market.

The prospects for organic-based PV devices are continuing to improve as development gets closer to commercialization, and an efficiency of 8-10 percent is likely in the foreseeable future. The success of organic and thin-film PVs will depend on their ability to be cost-competitive when compared with existing electrical sources such as rigid PVs and batteries, and with emerging technologies such as fuel cells.

Thin-film PV cells based on crystalline and amorphous silicon, CdTe, and CIGS are in various phases of manufacture, and it is expected that they will achieve the cost reductions needed to compete directly with the other forms of energy. These reductions will become more significant when thin-film technologies are produced directly on building materials such as tiles and bricks.

PV applications can be roughly divided into three categories, those involving: power generation installations, conventional electronics and disposable electronics.

For the large-scale applications of PV in both building installed PV, rural electrification and irrigation pumps projects PV manufacturing costs must be reduced by at least a factor of two. As production costs decline, demand for PV electricity will outstrip system supply.

Leading PV developers along the supply chain have indicated that in both the US and global PV markets that for the last quarter of 2008 and through at least the first half of 2009, there will be softer conditions, which will prevent the rapid growth expected before the credit crunch, and this may even flow over into 2010. This is not due to any lack of technological innovations discussed in this report, but rather stems from a concern over reduced funding and spending levels on solar projects and the effect of the falling oil price – which in turn will make customers think twice about spending their savings on solar energy. That say and done, during in 2009, revenues may pick up due to strong demand for PV. Also, consolidation of the industry during 2009 within the industry will help offset these concerns, and even lead to some reduction in PV module prices. Table E-4 (not display it here) summarizes the latest outlook for the worldwide thin-film PV market by thin-film segment over the next 5 years. The report includes trends broken down by volume and material types.

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