U.S. Powertrain R&D and Market Outlook

Reports, MRG Multimedia Research Group, Inc.

U.S. Powertrain R&D and Market Outlook

Business Opportunites for Powertrain Competition

Hard Copy Print Edition: $1,150 USD	Published September 2010 by MRG, Inc. and Fuji-Keizai
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Table of Contents

Table of Tables

Introduction

The global recession of the past few years has had a significant impact on the U.S. automotive industry. The crisis in the United States is mainly defined by the government bailouts of both General Motors and Chrysler, while Ford secured a line of credit in case they require a bridging loan in the near future. Car sales declined in the United States, affecting both U.S.-based and foreign car manufacturers. The bridging loans lead to greater scrutiny of the U.S. automotive industry in addition to criticism of their product range, product quality, high labor wages, job bank programs, and healthcare and retirement benefits.

While the "Big Three" U.S. market share declined from 70% in 1998 to 53% in 2008, global volume increased particularly in Asia and Europe. The annual capacity of the industry is 17 million cars; sales in 2008 dropped to an annual rate of only 10 million vehicles made in the U.S. and Canada. Sales have slowly begun to rebound in the 2009 and 2010, but the industry is not expected to regain the sales levels of the 2005 until at least 2015.

Additionally, in 2010 the Obama Administration implemented the biggest overhaul of CAFE (Corporate Average Fuel Economy) standards since their inception in 1975. The average fuel economy for cars must improve from the current 27.5 mpg, where it has been since 1990, to 37.8 mpg by 2016. The truck standard has to rise from 23.5 mpg to 28.8. This means cars must improve by 37 percent, trucks by 23 percent. Combined, cars and trucks in 2016 should average 34.1 mpg, up 35 percent from the current 25.3 mpg—a jump of 5.1 percent per year.

Perhaps ironically, the result of this confluence of industry turmoil and regulatory constriction means that innovation is key to the future success of the automotive industry: efficient engines, transmissions, and other technologies will offer significant opportunities.

This report looks at the new CAFE standards and emerging technologies as an opportunity for innovators to engage, and profit from, the new auto industry landscape. The following sectors are analyzed in this report.

Market Outlook Data

CAFÉ and GHG Standards

Market	Description	Year
U.S.	Average Required Fuel Economy (MPG) Under Standards	2008-2011 2012-2016
U.S.	EPA CO2-Equivalent Emissions Standard (Grams per mile)	2012-2016

Component/Parts Market

Market	Description	Year
Global	Original Equipment (OE) Parts Market	2007-2009
U.S.	OE and Aftermarket Equipment Parts	2007-2009
U.S.	OE and Aftermarket Parts for U.S.-Assembled Cars and Light Trucks	2006-2008
U.S.	Batteries Suppliers by Manufacturer	2004-2009

Market Forecast

Market	Description	Year
U.S.	Total Auto Sector, Historical and Forecast	2008-2014
U.S.	Annual Sales of Light-Duty Vehicles by Power Technology Segment	2007-2009 2010-2020
U.S.	Annual Sales of Light-Duty Vehicles by Market Segment	2008 2016
U.S.	Historical Hybrid-Electric Vehicle Sales by Model, Calendar Years by Make/Model	2004-2009
U.S.	Total Historical and Forecast Size of HEV/PHEV Component Systems Market by Year	2005-2015
U.S.	Total Historical and Forecast Size of HEV/PHEV Component Systems by Segment (Engines, Motors, Batteries)	2005-2015
U.S.	Batteries for HEV/EV/PHEV Applications	2008-2015
U.S.	Historical and Market Forecast for Diesel	2007-2009 2010-2020
Global	Light Vehicle Engine Market by Technology	2010-2020
U.S.	Gasoline Turbocharger Applications by Regional Market	2010-2015
U.S.	Diesel Turbocharger Applications by Regional Market	2010-2015
Global	Light Vehicle Outlook by Number of Cylinders	2008-2015
U.S.	Transmissions by Number of Speeds	2010-2015
Global	Dual Clutch Transmissions	2008-2015

Market Share Data

Market	Description	Year
N.A	Top 20 Largest OE Suppliers in North America	2008-2009
Global	Emissions Control Technologies by Company	2008-2009
Global	OE Engine Turbochargers for Light Vehicle Applications by Company	2008-2009
U.S.	GDI Engines by Company	2008-2009
U.S.	U.S.-Sold Cars and Light Trucks with Cylinder Deactivation Systems by Company	2008-2009
Global	Dual Clutch Transmissions for Light Vehicle Applications by Company	2008-2009
U.S.	Batteries for HEV Vehicles by Company	2008-2009
U.S.	Variable Transmissions for HEVS by Company, Based on 2009 Sales Figures	2009
U.S.	HEV Motors by Company	2008-2009
U.S.	Engine Sales by Type	2008-2009
U.S.	OEM for Engines for HEVs	2008-2009
U.S.	HEV Power Modules	2008-2009

Table of Contents

1	U.S. Government CAFÉ (Corporate Average Fuel Efficiency) and National Greenhouse Gases (GHG) Standards
1.1	2016 CAFE and GHG Standards
1.2	Flexibility Provisions for Manufacturers
1.3	Benefits and Costs of the Standards
1.4	Other Provisions
1.4.1	Early Credits
1.4.2	Air Conditioning Technologies
1.4.3	Flexible Fuel Vehicles (FFVs)
1.4.4	Advanced Technology Vehicle
1.4.5	Credit Transfer, Trading, Carry-Forward, Carry-Back
1.4.6	Low-volume Manufacturer Provisions
1.4.7	Compliance Enforcement
1.4.8	Estimated Impacts in Automobile Market
1.4.9	Climate Change, Oil Security, and Benefits
1.4.10	International Context
1.5	Differentiation Between EVs and PHEVs
1.5.1	Funding Status for Electric-Drive Vehicles
1.6	Recovery Act Awards for Electric Drive Vehicle Battery and Component Manufacturing Initiative

2	Technologies
2.1	Introduction
2.2	Engine Technologies that Improve Fuel Economy and Reduce CO2 Emissions
2.2.1	Low-friction Lubricants
2.2.2	Reduction of Engine Friction Losses
2.2.3	Cylinder Deactivation
2.2.4	Variable Valve Timing (VVT)
2.2.4.1	Variable Valve Timing — Intake Cam Phasing (ICP)
2.2.4.2	VVT — Dual Cam Phasing (DCP)
2.2.5	Discrete Variable Valve Lift (DVVL)
2.2.6	Continuous Variable Valve Lift (CVVL)
2.2.6.1	Electro-mechanical CVVL Systems
2.2.6.2	Electro-hydraulic CVVL Systems
2.2.7	Stoichiometric Gasoline Direct-injection Technology
2.2.8	Turbocharging and Downsizing
2.3	Diesel Engines
2.3.1	Exhaust Aftertreament Technologies for Diesel Engines
2.4	Types of Transmission Technologies
2.4.1	Six-, Seven-, and Eight-speed Automatic Transmissions
2.4.2	Dual Clutch Transmissions (DCT)
2.4.3	Continuously Variable Transmission (CVT)
2.5	Hybrid Powertrain Technologies
2.5.1	Higher Voltage Stop-start/Belt Integrated Starter Generator (BISG)
2.6	Other Types of Vehicle Improvements
2.6.1	Low-rolling-resistance Tires
2.6.2	Low-drag Brakes

3	Component/Parts Market, Makers and Market Share
3.1	Introduction
3.2	Market Share & Ranking for Sub-segment Component/Parts makers 2009/2010
3.2.1	Emissions Control Technologies
3.2.2	Turbochargers
3.2.3	Gasoline Direct Injection
3.2.4	Variable Valve Timing
3.2.5	Cylinder Deactivation
3.2.6	HCCI (Homogeneous Charge Compression Ignition)
3.2.7	Dual Clutch Transmission
3.2.8	Batteries for HEV, PHEV, and EV Vehicles
3.2.9	Continuously Variable Transmission
3.2.10	Electric Motors for HEVs
3.2.11	Engines for HEVs
3.2.12	HEV/EV Power Modules

4	Market, Historical & Forecast and Market Share
4.1	Total Market Forecast: Big Picture
4.2	Market Forecast by Segment
4.3	Market Forecast by Manufacturer
4.4	Market Forecast for HEVs
4.5	Market Forecast for HEV, PHEV, and EV Components
4.5.1	Lithium-Ion Batteries for Auto Applications
4.6	Diesel Technologies
4.7	Engine Trends
4.7.1	Turbocharging
4.7.2	Number of Cylinders
4.8	Transmission Trends
4.8.1	Dual Clutch Transmissions
4.9	Expected Penetration of Advanced Technologies into OEM Fleets

5	Key Findings and Business Opportunities for Powertrain Competition
5.1	Key Findings for Lowered Emissions/CO2, Higher Mileage per Gallon, etc., Development for Gasoline Engine Cars and Others
5.2	The Outlook for Emerging Engine and Component/Parts Products for Powertrain
5.3	Likely Powertrain-development Success and Failure Factors
5.4	Improved Gasoline Engine and Components Commercial Implications for Powertrain
5.5	Long-term Outlook for Improved Gasoline Engine Cars vs. PHV, EV, PHEV

Table of Tables

Table 1-1:	Average Required Fuel Economy (MPG) Under Standards 2012-2016
Table 1-2:	Previous Years Average Required Fuel Economy (MPG) 2012-2011
Table 1-3:	EPA CO2-equivalent Emissions Standards (Grams per Mile) 2012-2016
Table 1-4:	Model Year 2016 CO2 and Fuel Economy Targets for Various MY 2008 Vehicle Types
Table 1-5:	Cell, Battery, and Materials Manufacturing Facilities
Table 1-6:	Advanced Battery Supplier Manufacturing Facilities
Table 1-7:	Advanced Lithium-ion Battery Recycling Facilities
Table 1-8:	Electric Drive Component Manufacturing Facilities
Table 1-9:	Electric Drive Subcomponent Manufacturing Facilities
Table 1-10:	Advanced Vehicle Electrification
Table 1-11:	Transportation Sector Electrification
Table 1-12:	Advanced Vehicle Electrification and Transportation Sector Electrification
Table 1-13:	Advanced Electric Drive Vehicle Education Program
Table 1-14:	Advanced Diesel Applications
Table 2-1:	Near-term Technologies Available for Advanced Vehicles Including Estimates of Effectiveness in Reducing Vehicle Fuel Consumption (Average %)
Table 2-2:	Estimated Fuel Consumption Reduction Potential for Advanced-level Diesel Powertrains Compared to Base-level Diesel Powertrains
Table 2-3:	Transmission Technologies and Estimated Reduction in Fuel Consumption
Table 3-1:	Total World Original Equipment (OE) Parts Market, 2007-2009
Table 3-2:	Total U.S. OE and Aftermarket Equipment Parts, 2007-2009
Table 3-3:	Value of OE and Aftermarket Parts for U.S.-Assembled Cars and Light Trucks, 2006-2008* in $US Billions
Table 3-4:	Top 20 Largest OE Suppliers in North America, 2009 vs. 2008
Table 3-5:	Historical Top 10 Largest OE Suppliers to North America, 2005-2009 by Sales Value in $US Millions
Table 3-6:	Leading Suppliers of Emissions Control Technologies, 2008-2009
Table 3-7:	Technology Roadmap for Emerging Emission Control Technologies
Table 3-8:	Global Market Share for OE Engine Turbochargers for Light Vehicle Applications
Table 3-9:	U.S. Market Share for GDI Engines, 2008-2009
Table 3-10:	Market Share for U.S.-Sold Cars and Light Trucks with Cylinder Deactivation Systems, 2008-2009
Table 3-11:	Players in Cylinder Deactivation
Table 3-12:	Emerging Technologies in HCCI
Table 3-13:	Global Market Share for Dual Clutch Transmissions for Light Vehicle Applications, 2008-2009
Table 3-14:	Leading Dual Clutch Manufacturers
Table 3-15:	Market Share for Batteries for HEV Vehicles, 2008-2009
Table 3-16:	Batteries Suppliers by Manufacturer, 2004-2009
Table 3-17:	Emerging Battery Manufacturers/Partnerships for HEV/PHEV/EV
Table 3-18:	Overview of Current Battery Technologies for PHEV
Table 3-19:	Market Share 2009 for Continuously Variable Transmissions for HEVS, Based on 2009 Sales Figures
Table 3-20:	Market Share for HEV Motors, 2008-2009
Table 3-21:	Emerging Electric Motor Technology
Table 3-22:	Total U.S. Engine Sales by Type, 2008-2009
Table 3-23:	U.S. Market Share by OEM for Engines for HEVs, 2008-2009
Table 3-24:	Emerging Engine Technology for HEVs
Table 3-25:	Market Share for HEV Power Modules, 2008-2009
Table 4-1:	Total U.S. Auto Sector, Historical and Forecast, 2008-2014
Table 4-2:	Market Share Forecast for U.S. Auto Sales (Passenger Cars and Light Trucks), 2007-2016, by Segment
Table 4-3:	Total Annual Sales of Light-Duty Vehicles by Manufacturer, 2008 (Actual) and 2016 (Forecast)
Table 4-4:	Annual Sales of Light-Duty Vehicles by Market Segment, 2008MY (Actual) and 2016 (Forecast)
Table 4-5:	Historical Hybrid-Electric Vehicle Sales by Model, Calendar Years 2004-2009, by Make/Model
Table 4-6:	Upcoming Electric Drive and Hybrid Drive Vehicles 2010-2016
Table 4-7:	Cost Percentage of Components for Hybrid Electric Vehicles
Table 4-8:	Total Historical and Forecast Size of HEV/PHEV Component Systems 2005-2015 Market (US$ Million)
Table 4-9:	Total Historical and Forecast Size of HEV/PHEV Component Systems by Segment 2005-2015
Table 4-10:	Forecast Batteries for HEV/EV/PHEV Applications, 2008-2015
Table 4-11:	Historical and Market Forecast for Diesel 2007-2020
Table 4-12:	Upcoming Advanced Diesel Automobiles for U.S. Market 2011-2012
Table 4-13:	Outlook for Global Light Vehicle Engine Market, by Technology, 2010-2020
Table 4-14:	U.S. Outlook for Gasoline Turbocharger Applications by Market, 2010-2015
Table 4-15:	U.S. Outlook for Diesel Turbocharger Applications by Market, 2010-2015
Table 4-16:	Global Light Vehicle Outlook by Number of Cylinders, 2008-2015
Table 4-17:	Outlook for U.S. Transmissions by Number of Speeds, 2010-2015
Table 4-18:	Outlook for Dual Clutch Transmissions, 2008-2015
Table 4-19:	Forecast Penetration of Advanced Technology for 2016 CO2 Standards as Percentage of Sales

U.S. Powertrain R&D and Market Outlook: Business Opportunities for Powertrain Competition (September 2010) is 104 pages. A hard copy print edition is available for $1,495.00 USD, a PDF single-departmental license for $2,295.00 USD, and a PDF corporate license for $3,495.00 USD. For more information or to order the report, contact Rob Smith at 1-408-453-5553 or rsmith@mrgco.com.

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